Covid impact: Labour automation, digitisation above global avg, says study

 The COVID-19 pandemic is making companies automate their workforce faster than expected globally, while firms with operations in India are accelerating their automation and digitisation above the global average, a World Economic Forum study showed on Wednesday.

The year-long study on effects of automation in the workplace and the outlook for robot revolution found that the 'future of work' has arrived early due to COVID-19 and may lead to 85 million jobs getting displaced in the next five years in medium and large businesses across just 15 industries and 26 economies.

At the same time, the robot revolution will create 97 million new jobs, but communities most at risk from disruption will need support from businesses and governments, the World Economic Forum (WEF) said.

These new jobs would mostly emerge in the care economy, in fourth industrial revolution technology industries like artificial intelligence, and in content creation fields.

"Businesses with operations in India are accelerating automation and digitisation above the global average. While 58 per cent are accelerating automation of tasks, compared to 50 per cent globally, as many as 87 per cent are accelerating digitalisation of work processes, above the global average of 84 per cent," the study showed.

By 2025, employers will divide work between humans and machines equally. Roles that leverage human skills will rise in demand. Machines will be primarily focused on information and data processing, administrative tasks and routine manual jobs for white and blue-collar positions.

The tasks where humans are set to retain their comparative advantage include managing, advising, decision-making, reasoning, communicating and interacting.

There will be a surge in demand for workers who can fill green-economy jobs, roles at the forefront of the data and artificial intelligence economy, as well as new roles in engineering, cloud computing and product development.

But for those workers set to remain in their roles in the next five years, nearly 50 per cent will need reskilling for their core skills.

The report incorporated data from the top hiring and strategy managers at the world's biggest companies, as also from the study's partners LinkedIn, Coursera, FutureFit AI and ADP.

It used projections of senior business leaders representing nearly 300 global companies, which collectively employ 8 million workers.

According to the study, analytical thinking, creativity and flexibility are among the top skills needed over the next five years, while data and artificial intelligence, content creation and cloud computing are the top emerging professions.

The most competitive businesses will be those that choose to reskill and upskill current employees, as per the 'Future of Jobs' study.

By 2025, automation and a new division of labour between humans and machines will disrupt 85 million jobs globally in medium and large businesses across 15 industries and 26 economies. Roles in areas such as data entry, accounting and administrative support are decreasing in demand as automation and digitization in the workplace increase.

More than 80 per cent of business executives are accelerating plans to digitize work processes and deploy new technologies, while 50 per cent of employers are expecting to accelerate the automation of some roles in their companies, as per the survey.

In contrast to previous years, job creation is now slowing while job destruction is accelerating, it said.

"COVID-19 has accelerated the arrival of the future of work. Accelerating automation and the fallout from the COVID-19 recession has deepened existing inequalities across labour markets and reversed gains in employment made since the global financial crisis in 2007-2008, WEF Managing Director Saadia Zahidi said.

It is a double-disruption scenario that presents another hurdle for workers in this difficult time and the window of opportunity for proactive management of this change is closing fast, she said.

"Businesses, governments and workers must plan to urgently work together to implement a new vision for the global workforce," Zahidi noted.

Nearly 43 per cent of businesses surveyed indicate that they are set to reduce their workforce due to technology integration, 41 per cent plan to expand their use of contractors for task-specialized work, and 34 per cent plan to expand their workforce due to technology integration.

PM Narendra Modi calls for scaling up of Covid-19 testing, sero surveys

 Calling for continued vigilance and a high state of preparedness against the Covid-19 pandemic, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday directed health authorities to scale up Covid-19 testing and sero-surveys.

He said the facility to get tested regularly and speedily at a low cost must be available to all at the earliest.

Chairing a review meeting of the research and vaccine deployment ecosystem against the pandemic, the prime minister underscored the need for continuous and rigorous scientific testing and validation of traditional medicine treatments. He appreciated the efforts of the Ministry of AYUSH for conducting evidence-based research and providing reliable solutions in this difficult time, an official statement said.

"The prime minister reiterated the country's resolve to provide cost-effective, easily available and scalable solutions for testing, vaccine and medication, not only for India but for the entire world," it said.

At the meeting, also attended by Union Health Minister Harsh Vardhan, NITI Aayog Member (Health), Principal Scientific Advisor, senior scientists and other officials, Modi called for continued vigilance and a high state of preparedness against the pandemic.

Modi also appreciated efforts made by Indian vaccine developers and manufacturers to rise to the Covid-19 challenge and committed to continue government facilitation and support for all such efforts.

Covid-19: Over 41% workers in India face increased burnout, says report

 Employees in India are facing increased burnout due to lack of separation between work and personal life as well as concerns of contracting Covid-19, a report said on Wednesday.

According to Microsoft's latest Work Trend Index, that surveyed over 6,000 information and first-line workers across eight countries, India had the second highest percentage of workers facing increased burnout in Asia at 29 per cent.

India also came out top with over 41 per cent workers citing the lack of separation between work and personal life as negatively impacting their well-being, resulting in increased stress levels.

"In the last six months, we have seen how Covid-19 has created an era of remote anywhere. It has led to the evolution of a new workplace - from a physical space to one residing in a virtual world," said Samik Roy, Country Head, Modern Work, Microsoft India.

The pandemic increased burnout at work, in some countries more than others. In India, 29 per cent of workers are experiencing increased burnout at work, owing to its increase in workday span by one hour.

Data showed that, globally, even six months past the first work-from-home orders, people are in significantly more meetings, taking more ad hoc calls and managing more incoming chats than they did before the pandemic.

"As people adjusted to remote working, after hours chats, or chats between 5 pm and midnight, have also increased," the report said.

Further, for remote workers in Asia, no commute is hurting productivity, the report said adding that for years, Microsoft's research group has been studying how commute has helped maintain work-life boundaries — and worker's productivity and well-being.

Microsoft said a series of updates have been launched within Microsoft Teams to support employee well-being. These include a virtual commute experience that helps users prepare for the day and mindfully disconnect in the evening.

Amid scarcity, Yogi Adityanath unveils UP's largest oxygen plant

 Amid a shortage of oxygen to treat Covid-19 patients at hospitals in India, Uttar Pradesh chief Minister Yogi Adityanath on Thursday virtually inaugurated the state’s largest oxygen plant in Modinagar, Ghaziabad.

The plant, commissioned by INOX Air Products (INOX), one of India’s largest manufacturers of industrial and medical gases, has a capacity of 150 tonnes liquid medical oxygen per day. It has been set up as part of an agreement signed between the Uttar Pradesh government and INOX AP during the ‘UP Investors’ Summit 2018’ on February 21 and 22, 2018. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had laid its foundation on July 29, 2018.

With the commissioning of this greenfield plant, UP’s oxygen production capacity has now increased from 115 tonnes to 265 tonnes per day.

Commissioned with a project outlay of Rs 135 crore, the new plant will generate 150 direct and indirect employment opportunities in the state and is projected to fulfil the oxygen demand of more than 200 state hospitals and medical colleges, besides catering to various industries’ need for industrial gases.

Meanwhile, INOX is also keen to make a second round of investment, of nearly Rs 150 crore, in setting up another Ultra High Purity Cryogenic Liquid Oxygen Plant in the central UP.

In his address, Adityanath said the new plant would fortify the availability of oxygen not only in UP but also other northern states. He emphasised that his government had created a robust medical and health care infra in UP, which was contributing immensely in tackling the current Covid-19 pandemic situation and controlling the mortality rate.

CM Adityanath added that the investment not only boosted industrial development but also contributed towards creating a positive image of the state among investors’ community at large. He said his government was proactively working towards creating a conducive business environment in UP and resolution of such grievances.

Currently, INOX is catering to more than 60 per cent of the total medical oxygen requirement in the country. It supplies oxygen to more than 800 hospitals through a dedicated fleet of 550 transport tanks and 600 drivers.

The plant has a storage capacity of 1,000 tonnes of gas, besides a well-oiled distribution network and infrastructure.

INOX AP claimed it operated a fleet of 15 cryogenic tankers having a total capacity of 230,000 litres of oxygen. “The newly commissioned plant is a testament of our commitment towards serving the nation and supporting the government in these challenging times,” INOX group director Siddharth Jain said.

The proposed plant will make UP self-reliant in providing the medical and industrial gases while also strengthening and promoting the sustainable industrial growth in the state, according to a company release.

All govt departments told to cut expenses by 60% amid coronavirus outbreak

The Centre has begun to cut expenditure in right earnest as the financial impact of Covid-19 deepens.

Days after cutting the salaries and other allowances of MPs and ministers, the government has passed instructions to all departments to reduce their expenditure by as much as 60 per cent from their first-quarter spending plans.

Each department has to make the “savage cuts” by redoing the Budget maths.

The only exception is spending that deals with schemes related to the pandemic. Here too, there could be cuts for non-essential stuff. No instructions have been issued to states to prune expenditure but it is understood that these too could happen soon.

The sum to be reduced will roughly be from a budget of Rs 3.43 trillion of estimated government spending in the first quarter. The cuts have become necessary because all estimates show both tax and non-tax revenue of the government will come up far short of the Budget estimates in FY21.

The government’s borrowing calendar for the first half of the year has made no provision to cover the shortfall.

Normally under the government of India’s spending plans, the ministries and departments have to spend 25 per cent of their Budget in each of the four quarters of the year. This is meant to block them from bunching their expenditure at the end of the financial year, which was the unstated norm till about a decade ago.

The new norms allowed the expenditure monitors in each of these departments to keep track of how productively public money had been spent. In this fiscal year, the departments have finalised their expenditure plans. But now the finance ministry has issued a modified cash management plan to them, advising the cutbacks .

For this purpose, the government has divided the ministries into three groups. The first set will have to reduce their expenditure by 20 per cent, the next by 40, and the remaining by 60 per cent. It is up to the departments concerned to figure out how to make the cuts.

For FY21, the government had planned to spend Rs 30.42 trillion, according to Budget estimates. Leaving out the committed interest payments and transfers to states including centrally sponsored schemes, Finance Commission grants and sundry other grants, loans, transfer, the remainder is Rs 16.20 trillion. Subtracting other committed expenditures including wages and pensions, which amount to Rs 4.58 trillion, leaves about Rs 11.62 trillion for the entire year. From this the departments and ministries can make the cuts. The instructions make no mention of cutting wages and pensions.

Microcredit crucial for low income households dealing with Covid-19 blow

We are confronted with unprecedented challenges and uncertainty posed by the Covid-19 pandemic and its impact on our lives — or deaths, for many. Besides the public health emergency, this is the economic tsunami of the highest order, with no end-date in sight yet. Surely, demands from large and visible sectors would be most vociferous, impact more quantifiable and redressal relatively easier to deliver. However, it is the invisible low-income households (LIH), who would be hardest hit and deserve most support. Given the demands on the already stretched resources, our immediate policy response should be to prioritise the needs of LIHs.

Over 90 per cent LIHs are self-employed or employed in the informal sector, earn less in absolute terms, have volatile cash-flows and lack the safety nets to deal with adversity. Majority seek income outside the traditional agriculture — in farms, livestock, services, construction, manufacturing, trade and depend of daily-weekly earnings to meet the basic needs. Like us, confronted with requirement of lumpsum amount, typically in the range of Rs 30,000 to Rs 1 lakh, they access credit. For over a decade, micro-credit has been a key channel for LIHs and today nearly 5.6 crore LIHs have micro-credit worth Rs 2.11 trillion.

These are still early days, but undoubtedly Covid-19 is going to shock the demand (customers) and the supply (lenders and funders/investors) of micro-credit. Absorbing and reversing the shock would require coordinated approach in the ecosystem amongst governments, regulator and the business.

Let’s begin with the demand. Cash-flows of LIH, across sectors would be affected due to loss of work, restriction on mobility, delays in payments, demand-supply shocks, pricing distortions and so on. Duration of impact would determine its severity. Even those, who may not be adversely impacted, would find it hard to repay their loans or access fresh loans as cash transactions get restricted, mobility restrained, and financial services disrupted. LIHs use micro-credit for multiple financial needs— credit, liquidity, emergency funds, investment and so on. If suitable micro-credit is unable to pitch at this critical juncture, it would have very serious ramifications on their ability to meet the exigencies arising out of Covid-19 and recovery.

Cash transfers by the government for illness coverage or basic consumption are necessary but can only support as much. LIHs would need adaptive micro-credit.

On the supply side, micro-credit lenders face colossal challenges. The micro-credit model relies in meeting customers in groups, at their doorstep for sourcing, disbursements and repayment. Business has come to a halt in the times of “social distancing” and “lockdowns”. Forthcoming disruption in repayments would put enormous pressure on the cashflows, impairing lenders ability to manage liquidity and honour their commitments to funders and employees. While industry has been swift to take proactive measures, not all functions can be instantly moved remotely and not without loss of productivity. Given the history, no one can guarantee that miscreants would not exploit the situation to manipulate customers not to pay, spoiling credit culture.

While the impact would fully manifest in the coming days, it is important to take a few of urgent steps.

First, the Reserve Bank of India is rightly allowed back to back moratorium on loans to customers and lender, which would give immediate relief to customer who are unable to repay now and maintain liquidity at household level. However, interest cost of deferment to three-months moratorium is not insignificant for LIHs and would put further strain their finances. The government should consider absorbing this additional debt burden for the LIHs. This would give direct and targeted cash benefit to customers and provide immediate liquidity to lenders. In the situation of deep financial constraints, where customers are not affected and can repay on time or even prepay, they should be incentivised to do so through discounts. This is also important to maintain the credit discipline now and in future.

Second, LIHs would need short-term loans to tide over the disruptive cash-flows as well larger loans to restart their livelihoods as they recover from this onslaught. Due to uncertainty and increasing delinquencies, lenders ability and confidence to lend would be shaken. In order to ensure that lenders can resume lending, government agencies such as SIDBI, NABARD, MUDRA would need to be inventive and supportive through guarantees, refinancing, low-cost financing, subsidies, subventions etc. Lenders would also need support with equity to maintain capital adequacy.

Thirdly, micro-credit industry with a network of 40,000 branches and workforce of 300,000 people have enormous connect with over 5.6 million LIHs, that is 300 million people across India. They are closest to the LIHs to understand what the impact is, how are they coping and what they need most! The government must use this infrastructure to efficiently target their support.

As of now, there is no clarity as to how worse the situation can get and how long it would last. It is equally unclear what would it take to recover the situation and how long. Everyone — customers, lenders, regulators/government, investors/funders must constantly review the situation and make decisions and adjustment as it evolves. In addition to whole-hearted actions, there is need for utmost trust, solidarity and risk-sharing between all to avert backsliding of LIHs to destitution. The choice is ours.

Coronavirus outbreak, recession cloud credit quality outlook, says CRISIL

The intensifying impact of Covid-19, coupled with a looming global recession, has cast an unprecedented shadow over the credit quality outlook of India Inc, which was already struggling due to the economic slowdown, said CRISIL.

The impact of a slowing economy has started reflecting in rating actions with downgrades (469) outnumbering upgrades (360) in H2FY20. CRISIL’s credit ratio slid to 0.77 in H2, compared to 1.21 in H1FY20.

However, timely measures by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) — to permit banks to offer moratorium on servicing of loans until May 2020 — comes as a huge breather.

Over the near-to-medium term, however, the credit quality trend will be driven by the ability of companies to rebound from the near-stagnation in demand.

Gurpreet Chhatwal, president of CRISIL Ratings, said: “India Inc’s credit quality will deteriorate in the near term. Its study of 35 sectors — both from manufacturing and services — however, shows sharp variation in resilience in a post-Covid landscape.

Strong balance sheets or continuing demand will support some sectors.”

These 35 sectors account for 71 per cent of debt (excluding financial sector) in CRISIL’s rated portfolio. Around 4 per cent of debt is in sectors that are least resilient, such as airlines, gems and jewellery, auto dealers, and real estate, given the discretionary nature of goods and services, and weak balance sheet.

Nearly 44 per cent of debt is in sectors expected to be in the high-resilience category. Among these, pharmaceuticals, fertiliser, oil refineries, power & gas (distribution and transmission) benefit from the essential nature of products and, in some cases, from government support.

chartNearly 52 per cent of debt is in sectors expected to be moderately resilient, such as auto manufacturers, power generators, roads, and construction.

In a similar development, Moody’s downgraded the outlook on the Indian banking system from “stable” to “negative” on Thursday. This follows the adverse fallout of the virus outbreak, coupled with a rise in defaults.

Banks’ asset quality is expected to deteriorate across the corporate, SME and retail segments, leading to pressure on profitability and capital, Moody’s said a statement.

These techies are 3D printing ventilator splitters for Covid-19 patients

At a time when there is a spurt in the number of Covid-19 cases in India, most hospitals are also running short of ventilators which are absolutely necessary to help the infected continue breathing. According to several estimates, the country has only around 50,000 ventilators for a population of around 1.3 billion people.

A Bengaluru-based deep-tech start-up, Ethereal Machines, is addressing the problem to some extent by enabling the existing ventilators to cater to the different requirements of multiple patients, depending upon their criticality. The Blume Ventures-backed firm, which specialises in technologies associated with computerised numerical control (CNC) machining and 3D printing, has come up with an innovation to augment the capacities of existing ventilators, in dire circumstances. Simple 3D printed splitters that divide the supply of oxygen into two halves have been tried out successfully in Europe.

“India is seeing a massive shortage of ventilators and manufacturing them is going to take time,” says Kaushik Mudda, co-founder and CEO of Ethereal Machines. “We need to rapidly expand ventilator capacity and ensure that in the worst of circumstances, they can be used on more than one patient, differentially.”

Till Monday night, some 745,308 people worldwide had been infected by Covid-19, and around 35,305 had died, according to data by Johns Hopkins University. About 156,841 people had recovered. In India, 1,071 people had been infected by Covid-19, of which 29 had succumbed.

Ethereal has come up with ‘differential ventilation’ which is required in cases where the split ratio between two patients from a splitter has to be different. For example, the 30-70 split ratio is used in cases where one patient is healthy and another's condition is deteriorating. “This got us thinking as to how a ventilator can be utilised in such a circumstance. We have been working on this with a team of doctors headed by Sonal Asthana from Aster Hospitals, Bengaluru,” says Mudda, an alumnus of RV College of Engineering. Mudda co-founded Ethereal along with his batchmate Navin Jain in 2014.

The start-up is looking at sending these ‘differential splitters’ across the world to frontline medical staff so that they can utilise it in the event that there's a surge of patients that require ventilators. “We need to save as many lives as possible and do every bit in that direction,” says Mudda. “We have directed a significant amount of our resources and will continue to do so in order to help build our nation's strengths in the fight against Covid-19.”

Another start-up, Aerobiosys, which has been incubated at IIT Hyderabad, is building solutions to address problems of conventional ventilators for patients in critical and acute care, and also for patients in emergency who require preferential ventilation. There is a significant chance of a patient in a ventilator to develop alveolar damage and oxygen toxicity due to conventional modes of the ventilator. To solve this problem, the firm has come up with an idea to develop a smart, hybrid duo-vent for patients in the critical care unit with acute and chronic respiratory illness.

This device will be essential for low-resource settings and developing countries like India. It can provide preferential ventilation of appropriate quantity targeting both emergency and critically-ill patients, by ventilating both their lungs individually, with different pressure and oxygen concentration.

Priority is to shift 90% of over 4-mn workforce to WFH model: Debjani Ghosh

As the global Covid-19 pandemic continues to disrupt life, India's $191-billion information technology (IT) services industry and tech start-ups have reworked their business models siginificantly. Debjani Ghosh, president of industry body Nasscom (National Association of Software and Service Companies), discusses the way forward, in a conversation with

Neha Alawadhi. Edited excerpts:

How are IT-BPM companies coping with the situation?

For IT/ITeS (information technology enabled services) and BPM (business process management) companies the biggest priority is shifting almost 90 per cent of its 4.36 million workforce to a work-from-home model. In a big country like India, everything is not going to work properly from day one, but things have been moving fast. Mission critical services — like banking, hospitals, which require a lot of on-ground support, and a lot of security — cannot take data out and work from home, even though these are less than 5 per cent of the work force.

We are ensuring we take right care of these people with social distancing and sanitisation in the campuses, which is critical.

What are some of the main issues as more and more firms work from home?

The critical piece we now have to think about is connectivity, as most companies will work from home fully in the coming weeks. How much will our networks withstand? Will they allow the kind of work we do, which in most cases cannot afford latency. Also, power supply is going to become a critical issue.

The extension of a lot of schemes is also a priority, like the SEZ scheme ending on March 30. We had a meeting with Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal to bring that up. We will need extension of these schemes for at least six months, so business doesn't stop and get impacted.

My biggest request to the government is to reassure the world that our IT industry is very resilient, very adaptive, we're changing fast and will not let our customers down.

What are the key issues facing start-ups and small and medium enterprises (SMEs)?

With start-ups and SMEs, its really about liquidity. We have to ensure that the government or large companies, everyone who owes money to SMEs pay up. This is the time when start-ups can become really useful. They're innovative and can find solutions quickly. Now is the time to buy from start-ups. Please don't ask them to do trials, buy from them, invest in them.

One of the things we have asked the government for now is dongles, laptops, chargers. These have to be classified as essentials for work from home to happen. We need these to get delivered to ensure business continuity.

What is the Nasscom Taskforce that is being planned for Covid-19?

We’ve been hearing of so many companies working on different solutions like ventilators, working on something that will help track quarantine patients, etc, but all these efforts have been disjointed. So, there are two things we are doing. One, creating a directory of people and companies working on Covid-19 solutions, which will be accessible to anyone who may need it — resident welfare associations, government, anyone.

Two, Nivruti (Rai, Intel India country head) is leading a taskforce and members will now vote on what areas to take up — containment, tracking, testing, recovery. Once we identify the topics, we will maybe break it up into smaller groups. The members are more than 30-35 companies including Intel, TCS, Accenture, Wipro, SAP, AWS, Tech Mahindra and a lot of more big and small companies.

How are clients looking at the situation?

They are also in the same boat, having to figure out how to work from home and the impact on businesses. They know that the one thing that will take them through this is the use of technology. So, the expectations from us are only going up in terms of our ability to continue our services as we work from home.

As an industry, we got together and said that first priority has to be safety of our people. We have to figure out how do we keep our client's businesses up and running while keeping our people safe.

Covid-19: India prepares for massive screening effort after April 14

India, which is under the largest lockdown in the world, is readying to undertake a massive testing programme to identify COVID-19-positive cases after the 21-day period ends in a move that public health experts have been calling for.

The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) sought quotations earlier this week from suppliers for a million antibody kits (for screening through blood tests) and also 700,000 RNA extraction kits (the swab-based test for confirming COVID-19). As on Friday, a total of 157 laboratories were gearing up for testing — of these around 121 are government labs (109 are functioning and 12 are being operationalised) and 36 are private labs.

“India would need screenings on an extensive scale after the 21-day lockdown period is over. The incubation period is about 15 days and the virus manifests by then. So assuming everyone stays put at home, the chances are they would only infect their immediate family members. Assuming they step out to buy groceries, there is a chance of infecting others,” explained K Srinath Reddy, president of the Public Health Foundation of India. Rapid screening tests would then help to identify the people at risk (with high viral load) and they can be isolated.

ALSO READ: Coronavirus LIVE: It's clear that we have entered recession, says IMF chief

The ICMR is, thus, working on a war footing to develop the testing ecosystem — especially for the screening blood tests. There are two types of tests — one is an antibody-based test (which is quicker and cheaper) to screen a person with high viral load and then there is the PCR test kit, which is a genetic testing to identify if someone is COVID-19 positive.

In a lockdown, when everyone is isolated, India could be doing fine with lesser amount of testing.

“India has to utilise this period to develop testing infrastructure so that it can screen large numbers of people immediately after the lockdown is relaxed. While it is anybody’s guess now, one can assume that the lockdown would be lifted in stages,” said a senior doctor, who is also working closely with the government on the issue.

Medical staffers wearing protective gear, part of a special unit performing house calls, work in Bergamo, northern Italy, one of the areas worse-affected by coronavirus. Photo: PTIMedical staffers wearing protective gear, part of a special unit performing house calls, work in Bergamo, northern Italy, one of the areas worse-affected by coronavirus. Photo: PTI

India has tested 26,798 individuals so far, a low number compared to Western countries, but a complete lockdown may just serve the cause.

However, as ICMR has enquired about production capacity and supply timelines, it was initially looking for kits that were approved by international authorities like the US Food and Drug

Administration (USFDA). With pressure mounting and time running out, the agency has now relaxed norms to allow test kits with 100 per cent concordance among true positive and true negative samples for commercial use in India.

Private companies have stepped on the gas. Gujarat-based CoSara Diagnostics is ready to supply around 10,000 kits a day from April. It has a partnership with a US-based company. Swiss multinational Roche and others have also been given a licence by the drug regulator to evaluate the quality of kits.

The National Institute of Virology, Pune, is in the process of validating antibody-based screening kits. Sources say ICMR has started receiving test kits from South Korea, Germany and now expects to get a million kits from the World health Organization.

“Locations have been identified where these kits would be stocked. However, given the severity of the outbreak, kits from other countries are taking time to reach. A batch has already come from South Korea,” said a source.

coronavirusAn official measures the temperature of a visitor using an infrared thermometer at the entrance of a bank, following the outbreak of coronavirus in Srinagar. Photo: PTI

Meanwhile, the cost of the PCR test (around Rs 4,500) is deterring individuals from opting for it. About 90 per cent of queries fizzle out after they realise that the cost is not borne by the government.

On the first day of testing, Thyrocare received 3,000 enquiries, of which 30 agreed for the test. Out of this 30, almost 90 per cent requested collection executives to not visit their homes in protective equipment. “They were worried about the neighbours getting to know,” said A Velumani, founder and chairman of Thyrocare.

ICICI Securities said that Metropolis Healthcare management has indicated that they were preparing to ramp up testing capacity to thousands a day. They plan to source kits from multiple vendors to avoid bottlenecks.

“ICMR has been testing 50-60 cases per day per machine despite their capability of 500. This was due to stringent testing profile criteria of travel history. Metropolis believes that with 30 per cent capacity, private companies would be able to support 70 per cent of the requirement,” ICICI Securities noted.

Once the antibody kits (for blood test) are ready, many labs could also offer it for free for the poor, felt government sources. This would expand testing to the hinterland.

Coronavirus: 724 cases in India, toll at 17; Italy records 919 deaths

The death toll due to COVID-19 rose to 17 in the country on Friday and the number of coronavirus cases climbed to 724, according to the Health Ministry. the ministry said four deaths were reported from Maharashtra while Gujarat had registered three deaths. Karnataka has reported two deaths so far, while Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Bihar, Punjab, Delhi, West Bengal, J&K and Himachal Pradesh have reported one death each.

To ensure farmers do not face problems in harvesting of rabi crops, the Centre exempted mandis, procurement agencies, agri machinery hiring centres and intra- and inter-state movement of farm implements from lockdown rules.

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Amid fears in the scientific community that the number of positive cases in India could actually be higher than the number reported, Cabinet Secretary Rajiv Gauba wrote to state governments to ramp up detection because more than 1.5 million international travellers came to India over the past two months but there appears to be a gap between the actual monitoring for COVID-19 and the total arrivals.

India coronavirus dispatch: Fears of community transmission in India?

As India grapples with the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, here are articles curated from across Indian news publications, on how citizens are dealing with the lockdown, long reads on Covid-19, and opinion pieces on ways to manage the crisis, and more...

AN EXPERT SPEAKS

‘India Now in Stage 3’: Doctor from Covid-19 Hospitals Task Force

According to Dr Girdhar Gyani, the convenor of the Task Force for Covid-19 Hospitals, "India has entered stage 3, which is community transmission, it is the beginning of this stage.” Read more here

Covid-19 PANDEMIC: CITIZENS UNDER LOCKDOWN

India lockdown diary, Day 3: Doctor dies in Mumbai, truck full of migrants, Kejriwal’s appeal.

The Centre is working in tandem with various state governments to tackle the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic and to ensure that the curfew is observed diligently. This is how the states, and union territories across the country are dealing with the outbreak. Read more here

Madurai Kavalan app uses GPS tracking for the Coronavirus pandemic

Madurai-based start up, JioVio Healthcare, introduces a new feature to an in-house app to help with GPS tracking of those in mandated quarantine due to the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Read more here

Coping with corona virus: Big challenge for India’s 37 per cent — ‘internal migrants’

Tackling the Covid-19 pandemic is not just a medical issue, but a multi-faceted socio-economic one, and calls for commensurate measures. Read more here

Covid-19 lockdown: TV viewing time up by 8 per cent, smart phone usage by 6 per cent

With people under lockdown, TV viewing time has increased by over 70 billion minutes in India with average daily viewers growing by 32 million. Read more here

LONGREADS

Life lessons from the history of lockdowns

Lockdowns, confinement, and isolation have been successfully used against pandemics, terror, and technological disasters. What are the costs? By Ramin Jahanbegloo Read more here

OPINION

Devising a people-centric response to Covid-19, by Pinarayi Vijayan

As we make our way through the lockdown, the State has major responsibilities. It must take a leadership role in enforcing the lockdown while upholding the rights and dignity of people, it must educate the citizens on the dos and don’ts of rules to follow, and it must take all sections of society with it. Read more here

Let’s use follower’s advantage: We could learn to fight Covid-19 from South Korea, by Kaushik Basu

We have three lessons from Korea, First, you need strong leadership. Second, it is critically important to have trust between society and government. Third, the need is for nuanced policies, with the government having the courage to make course correction as it goes along. Read more here

UNDERSTANDING COVID-19

Did pangolins transmit coronavirus to humans? Could be, but scientists still not sure

Research so far indicates that the pangolin, a scaly mammal that is illegally traded, was most likely an intermediary between bats and humans, but not the only one. Read more here

Explained: How antibody test for Covid-19 is different from PCR test

To trace how infections like Covid-19 have spread so far, it is important to detect people who contracted the disease in the past and have recovered. Read more here

PODCAST

In conversation with top epidemiologist Jayaprakash Muliyil

A discussion on the 21-day lockdown, whether India already has entered the community transmission phase with Covid-19, and the steps that we are to take going forward if we are to achieve a ‘herd immunity’ to the disease that can protect the young and the elderly.

India's response to COVID-19 pre-emptive, pro-active, graded: Govt

India's response to COVID-19 has been "pre-emptive, pro-active and graded", the government said on Saturday, brushing aside the allegations that the 21-day nationwide lockdown was announced without any planning.

The government said it had already put in place a "comprehensive response system" at its borders much before the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared the coronavirus as a public health emergency of international concern on January 30.

The government has come in for criticism that the lockdown was done without planning and also for the fact that migrant labourers are stranded across the country without resources.

The government said screening of incoming air passengers followed by suspension of visas and and ban on international flights was done much ahead of any other country.

"Thermal screening of incoming international passengers from China and Hong Kong was started on 18th January, much before the first case of coronavirus was detected in India on 30th January," it said.

"India's response to COVID-19 has been pre-emptive, pro-active and graded," the government said.

While citing the examples of Italy and Spain, which started screening of travellers 25 days and 39 days respectively after first reported cases, it said it took a number of proactive measures and shared the chronology of the steps taken by it.

The statement that "prosperous Indians" were allowed to return without screening, is "preposterous", the government said.

"The government took swift action to put in a place a comprehensive and robust system of screening, quarantine and surveillance are part of its robust response to the public health crisis right from the beginning.

"This covered every traveller, Indians returning after business, or tourism, students as well as foreigners," it said.

Screening of passengers took place at 30 airports, 12 major and 65 minor pots and at land borders, the government said, adding over 36 lakh passengers have been screened.

It said states have been regularly requested to maintain and further improve upon the surveillance so that the coverage is complete and there are no gaps.

"A meticulous system has enabled states to track down individuals who tried to avoid surveillance or who did not follow quarantine measures," the government said.

Media stocks rebound on low valuations; analysts expect gradual recovery

After falling the most among sectoral indices in early trade on Wednesday, shedding close to 4 per cent, the Nifty Media Index bounced backed sharply to close 3 per cent higher. The sector — comprising broadcasters, multiplex operators, and the print media — has been among the most impacted from the COVID-19 outbreak and the subsequent lockdown, on account of pressure on advertising revenues, uncertainty in the subscription segment, and a sharp drop in footfall.

While the broader markets have also recovered, Karan Taurani of Elara Capital says valuations for the sector are attractive, and a downside from their current levels seems limited. He adds that valuations for some players are lower than the levels last seen during the 2008 financial crisis. Zee Entertainment, which has the highest weight in the index, has declined 50 per cent over the month, with PVR down 32 per cent over the same period.

While most brokerages are positive on the structural growth story of multiplex players vis-à-vis other segments, they will bear most of the pain in the near term. Given the lockdown, brokerages have revised their FY21 footfall growth estimates from 8-12 per cent to just 1-2 per cent.Though big-budget movies are expected to be pushed back, smaller movies could be shot for the digital medium, thus impacting the release schedule.

chartAnalysts, however, say there could be bunching up of movies from the September quarter, which could offset some of the losses.Some relief is expected on the cost front, especially rentals (which account for 18-20 per cent of sales), given the force majeure clause.For the broadcasting space, a sharp fall in advertising growth is expected to dent revenues in the June quarter, as well as in FY21.

While analysts expect subscription revenues to be more stable, uncertainty over the new tariff order could weigh on growth.Given the pressure on revenues, analysts expect investments in over-the-top or OTT content to take a back seat for now. The high gestation period of the digital medium, as well as large investments, are expected to dent near-term profitability.While brokerages expect a recovery in Q2FY21, analysts are not hopeful of a sharp rebound like in 2008, when the recovery was ‘V’ shaped.

The show halts for event management companies amid coronavirus outbreak

The spate of cancellation and postponement of domestic events because of the COVID-19 outbreak has left the industry gasping. Estimates by top event management companies is that at least Rs 3,000 crore worth of cancellations and postponements have happened in the past few weeks, affecting business between March and May, considered a crucial period for the market.

These cancellations and postponements have extended to both small and big events in corporate, leisure, entertainment, sports and retail segments across cities, mirroring the trend worldwide. With coronavirus cases growing rapidly in India and community transmission being a real threat, there is uncertainty about whether the Indian Premier League (IPL), the country’s biggest sports event, will be held at all, though the Board of Control for Cricket in India has postponed the tournament to April 15 and is said to be toying with the idea of a truncated event that would be televised to people.

Industry veterans such as Harindra Singh of Percept, Brian Tellis of Dentsu-owned Fountainhead MKTG and Sabbas Joseph of Wizcraft International said the business had been thrown out of gear because of cancellations and postponements, prompting lay-offs and salary cuts.

The small and medium enterprises, in particular, said Joseph, co-founder and director, Wizcraft International, would be wiped out since it would be impossible for them to continue in tough market conditions for long.

A bigger worry for most players, however, is the impact extending for a longer duration owing to the fear of a second wave of the outbreak in the months ahead. “I see the first half of the calendar year taking a knock. But the impact could extend beyond the March to May season because much will depend on how ready clients are to consider an activation or on-ground event once the initial health scare subsidies,” said Singh, chairman and managing director, Percept.

Tellis, who is co-founder and group CEO, Fountainhead MKTG, said there was an impact on ancillary industries such as hospitality and aviation due to cancellations and postponement of events. “At least for now, everything has come to a grinding halt. There is no movement in the market as central and state governments impose lockdowns across key cities,” he said.

An EY report, along with the Event and Entertainment Management Association (EEMA), has pegged the size of the events market in India at Rs 10,000 crore. This excludes weddings, trade fairs and exhibitions. If the latter are added, the overall market touches Rs 40,000 crore, said Sabbas.

EEMA recently made a representation to the government asking for sops to bailout the industry. This includes tax refunds, collateral-free lines of credit and a moratorium on payback of loans.

Sabbas, who is also on the national advisory council of EEMA, said the government should work together with the industry to prevent lay-offs and salary cuts. “The events market is battling its biggest crisis ever. It is extremely important for the government to respond to its needs, like it has been done in countries such as Canada, Germany and the UK by governments there,” he said.

Coronavirus: 12 test positive in Kerala; MP joins the list with 4 cases

Twelve more persons have tested positive for COVID-19 in Kerala, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan said on Friday.

Of the new cases, six persons are from Kasaragod, five from Ernakulam and one from Palakkad. Total 40 persons have tested positive for COVID-19, out of them three have been discharged, the Chief Minister said.

There are 44,390 people under surveillance in the state. Of these, 44,165 are in isolation at home and total of 225 people are hospitalized.

Vijayan said, "On Friday, 56 people were admitted. 13,632 people have now been admitted into isolation. 5570 people were excluded from surveillance as they were not infected with the virus. Out of the 3456 samples tested, 2393 results returned negative."

"The five British tourists who had been staying in Munnar, and later in Ernakulam, have been diagnosed with the disease.

One person who returned to Palakkad from the UK has also tested positive for the novel coronavirus," the chief minister said.

Vijayan said the new cases in Kasargode were caused by a person who recently returned from abroad and who did not follow the self-quarantine measures. He took a flight to Karipur and stayed there for a day. From there he took a train to Kasargod.

In the following days, he attended several public events without taking any precautions, including a football game, a club, and a ceremony at home.

Two MLAs in Kasargod have also come under surveillance. Both had physical contact with the infected patient via handshake and hugging.

Madhya Pradesh has reported first cases of coronavirus with four people being tested positive. These cases have emerged from Jabalpur.

Pneumonia patients to be tested for coronavirus after govt advisory

The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare on Friday issued an advisory for hospitals and medical education institutions in the view of COVID-19.

The ministry has asked hospitals to postpone non-essential elective surgeries.

"Some beds should be set apart and prepared for creating isolation facilities in every public and private hospital. All hospitals should mobilize additional resources including masks, gloves and personal protection equipment. Healthcare personnel should be trained for dealing with any foreseeable emergencies," read the advisory.

The ministry said that all doctors, nurses, and support staff in different specialties, including pre and para clinical departments, should be mobilised and trained in infection prevention and control practices.

Read full advisory for hosipitals and medical education institutions here

"Hospitals must procure sufficient numbers of ventilators and high flow oxygen masks in preparation for future requirements. All hospitals must ensure that they have adequate trained manpower and resource pools for ventilator/ ICU care. Hospitals may ensure that stable patients are discharged as early as possible while further new admissions (of stable patients) are also restricted. Number of patient attendants should be strictly restricted to 'one' only," the advisory said.

The health ministry said that patients must be educated about cough etiquette, Do's and Don'ts, proper use of masks instead of using them indiscriminately and inefficiently; and personal hygiene.

ALSO READ: Coronavirus in numbers: Latest Covid-19 cases and deaths in India and world

It asked hospitals to put up posters to increase awareness amongst patients on Do's and Don'ts regarding COVID-19.

"All hospitals should carry out a preparedness drill on Sunday, 22nd March 2020. Guidelines for this drill will be made available on the Health Ministry website.

Non-essential audits of hospitals by various regulators and accreditation agencies may be postponed. All hospitals must provide treatment free of cost to any medical personnel who pick up infection while treating patients," the advisory said.

The minister said that no suspected COVID-19 patient should be turned away from any hospital and the admission of any such patient should be notified to NCDC or IDSP immediately.

"Similarly, all pneumonia patients must also be notified to NCDC or IDSP so that they can be tested for COVID-19. Hospitals to ensure social distancing in their premises. All ongoing examinations may be rescheduled after 31.03.2020," read the advisory.

"All evaluation work may be rescheduled after 31.03.2020. All Educational Institutions and Examination Boards are requested to maintain regular communication with the students and teachers through electronic means and keep them fully informed so that there is no anxiety amongst the students, teachers, and parents," it said.

ALSO READ: Coronavirus LIVE: India ramps up testing to include all pneumonia patients

The ministry said requested institutions to notify help-line numbers/e-mails which students can access for their queries.

"All unauthorized/ authorized shops (excluding pharmacies) and eateries in the vicinity of hospitals should be compulsorily shut. Leave of all kinds (except under emergency and unavoidable circumstances) may be cancelled immediately," the advisory said.

The ministry advised all patients not to come for routine visits to the OPD if it can be avoided or postponed.

"OPDs may be organised in such a manner that patients exhibiting flu-like symptoms are attended separately from other patients and spaced out so as to avoid overcrowding. Patients suffering from chronic diseases and minor elements may be advised to utilise OPDs in primary/ secondary care facilities rather than crowding tertiary care centres," read the advisory.

The Ministry of Health also tweeted on Saturday urging citizens to call 24*7 toll free number for support and guidance related to coronavirus.

Explained in numbers: Coronavirus outbreak impact on businesses

Businesses are seeing an adverse impact of Covid-19. A survey by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Ficci) tried to capture this. It shows that 81 per cent of surveyed Ficci members and associations said that their cash flow has decreased, while only minusculethree per cent said it has increased.

Lack of reinsurance cover magnifies non-life insurers' Covid-19 worries

For the non-life insurance companies, the scare of the coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) has been magnified since almost none have found any reinsurance cover in the international markets.

The companies finalise their reinsurance treaties by March every year for the next financial year. The disease has surfaced as a major risk at the fag end of the season.

“We buy reinsurance based on large risks like fire for a factory or for an aircraft, and so on,” a source said. Each medical or motor vehicle insurance that is written carries no such large risk and, hence, is an attractive portfolio for insurance companies to build up.

Since an individual medical insurance cover is not only minuscule compared to the size of even a small insurance company, and since not all people fall sick at the same time, the losses are never massive. Claims for such business never exceed 65-70 per cent of the total premium secured by a company. Firms, therefore, buy a thin reinsurance cover.

COVID-19 could upend this logic. “Normally, we apply the principle of stop loss in motor and health and buy reinsurance for those accordingly,” the source added. So, an insurance company will top up its usual claim rate with an estimate of outstanding claims on its books to arrive at its maximum liability. This is also known as its stop loss limit. For instance, if the combined total is 130 per cent, the insurance company will buy reinsurance cover to pay (for health or motor business) claims when losses potentially reach say 200 per cent of the premium booked. “Such eventualities are most unlikely,” the source said.

However, as there are no mortality figures to rely on for the new disease, insurers have no data to negotiate the premium to pay for the risk. Reinsurers like Zurich, AIG, and Swiss Re are hamstrung as they have already seen how the disease is making inroads in the balance sheets of European insurance companies.

Indian firms, therefore, have to take on a very high commitment to shoulder the loss (stop loss) or else pay a high reinsurance premium. The result is the same. Yet

they have to offer the cover after the Irdai has instructed companies to cover COVID-19 as part of their insurance plans. Without reinsurance support, the business could become prohibitively expensive.

Also, as the words pandemics and catastrophic losses are out of the pale of reinsurance covers, the chances of buying the cover have further diminished. As the percentage of COVID-19 related hospitalisations increase in India, insurance companies are bracing for its impact on their bottom lines.

Coronavirus fear: Biz disruption will outweigh currency gain, say analysts

As Indian rupee slides to a record low against the US dollar, this is unlikely to cheer the Indian software services providers owing to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.

Analysts tracking the sector said COVID-19 was not only expected to disrupt the core businesses of IT services firms but would also defer the new deal signings.

“There are a lot of worrying factors despite the currency losing value. Their workflow and demand are facing uncertainty due to COVID-19,” said Harit Shah, senior analyst at IndiaNivesh.

The fall in core business of IT firms is likely to bring down the dollar revenue of these companies, which will nullify the impact of rupee fall, said Madhu Babu, analyst at Centrum Broking. “There could also be curtailing of budgets from the clients’ side.”

This comes as Accenture announced its second-quarter results on Thursday. The global IT major slashed its revenue forecast in constant currency terms to 3-6 per cent year-on-year for the year-ending August 2020, from 6-8 per cent earlier, citing COVID-19 fears. Indian peers are likely to follow suit as India’s fourth-quarter earnings season kicks off from next month.

The rupee declined 0.3 per cent on Friday to hit an all-time low of Rs 75.20 against the dollar. “The fall is more likely to get extended in the financial year 2020-21 as the Reserve Bank is expected to cut rates,” said Naveen Kulkarni, chief investment officer, Axis Securities.

The central bank is likely to allow rupee depreciate over the next 12 months and not intervene “significantly” as the depreciation has also brought down the crude import bill and while exports could become more competitive, he said.

Usually, IT companies witness a change of 20-25 basis points in operating margin for every 1 per cent movement in the rupee, said Shah.

Infosys had given a margin guidance of 21-23 per cent for the ongoing financial year, while TCS expects this to be in the range of 26-28 per cent.

Typically, Indian IT services firms tend to pass on to the clients some of the benefits they derive from depreciating rupee. However, this time around, it is not going to be the case as the margins are already expected to be under tremendous pressure.

“Rupee has moved from Rs 40-levels to Rs 75 now per dollar over the last 12 years but margins of the sector have also fallen,” said Babu of Centrum Broking.