Outcome of US-China dispute will significantly impact the world: Jaishankar

The outcome of the current arguments between the US and China will significantly impact rest of the world and create new approaches to the global affairs, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has said.

Speaking at a programme organised by a major US think-tank Center for Strategic and International Studies on Tuesday, Jaishankar said the primary characteristics of world politics today are rebalancing of the global economy and polity.

"The primary characteristics of world politics today are the rebalancing of the global economy and polity, as well as the sharpening contradiction between the United States and China," he said.

"Both powers are engaging the world in a manner different from their past. Whatever the outcome of their current arguments, their behaviour will impact the rest of the world very significantly. It will change our thinking and probably in time, create new approaches to global affairs," he said.

Describing the current era as a tumultuous time, he said it is a far cry from the soothing mantras of globalisation that one heard just a few years ago.

During his address that was based on the subject "Preparing for a Different Era", the minister said that preparation for a more competitive and complex era will require a different mindset and for a country like India it would be in addition to the changes induced by its climb up the global power hierarchy.

"Preparing for a more competitive and complex era will require a different mindset. For a nation like India, this would be in addition to the changes induced by its climb up the global power hierarchy," he said.

Giving a sense of the Modi 2.0 foreign policy, Jaishankar said that India's broad approach will be reflected in the primacy of long-term thinking over short-term calculations.

"It would encourage undertaking deep structural changes and ambitious socio-economic initiatives that can transform both habits and attitudes. In this world, what were presumed to be intractable challenges will have to be addressed, not ducked. An example to point is that of the recent changes in the Indian State of Jammu and Kashmir, Jaishankar said.

India ended Jammu and Kashmir's special status by abrogating Article 370 of its Constitution on August 5.

Stating that in this different era, there will be convergence with many but congruence with none, Jaishankar said that finding common points to engage with as many power centres will characterise diplomacy at its highest level.

"For this reason, India finds it perfectly natural to engage a Chinese leader at Wuhan, the Russian one at Sochi and then go on to do the 2+2' meeting of Foreign and Defence Ministers with the United States, he said.

"At the G-20 in Buenos Aires last year, it engaged back to back, in fact this year as well, in two tri-laterals: US-Japan-India as well as Russia-India-China. The country that fares the best is the one which has least problems with its peer group and the broadest acceptance beyond," he said.

Jaishankar said that the game has now become one of positioning and optimising.

"For a number of reasons, the game has now become one of positioning and optimising. The reality is that India either reaches out in as many directions as possible and maximizes its gains or takes a more defensive approach of avoiding engagement," Jaishankar said.

"This is not just about greater ambition, it is also about not living in yesterday. In this intensely competitive world, India's goal should be to move closer towards the strategic sweet spot, said the Indian minister.

Cautioning that a world of "all against all is neither desirable nor indeed probable, he said the weight of history and the compulsions of politics will make sure that convergences end up as some form of collectivism and nor can beliefs and values be divorced from the behaviour of states.

"Thus, even as we look at an era of more dispersed power and sharper competition, the way forward is more likely to be new forms of accommodation rather than pure transactions, he said.

He said while each nations will naturally strive to advance their particular interests, similarities and affinities will always remain a factor.

So, while this is an exposition on changes in international affairs, I would emphasise that the direction is towards a new architecture rather than the absence of one, he said.

Ties with US have changed dramatically, will 'fix' trade issues: Jaishankar

India and the US have experienced dramatic changes in their relationship in the last two decades, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has said, exuding confidence that the two countries will find a way to "fix" their bilateral trade disputes.

Jaishankar said the world was increasingly becoming multipolar and is unlikely to return to bipolarity, predicting that a strategic appreciation of the emerging global landscape would bring India and the US closer.

"I can't believe that people today are less ingenious than we were in our time. So I'm reasonably confident that we will find a fix," said the top Indian diplomat who is currently on a three-day official trip to Washington DC.

One of the challenges is really how do one define the issue for which they are trying to find a fix, he said.

"My understanding of the conversations is that he (Piyush Goyal) has had with his counterpart and (that) his officials, have had team to team - that there's been a very intense engagement. I am hopeful that something would come out of it," Jaishankar said at an event here on Tuesday.

The External Affairs Minister said that ahead of the New York meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Donald Trump, there were multiple rounds of very positive conversations on the trade issue.

"I think they needed more time. Many of their issues were more complex," he said, adding that he has been telling the Indian press that trade deals are much more complicated than they think.

"It isn't simple arithmetic. A lot of variables are out there. So we will have to work our way through that," he said.

Trade officials from the two countries would naturally want progress on what are considered to be the outstanding issues, Jaishankar said.

"But I think there's also some desire to look beyond. So when people speak about what's gonna be the a trade deal, we'll have to see about that goes," he said.

"So it's going to be sort of you trade the size of it and the complexity of it for the time and the energy for it. I think that part of it is still a little open, but again, my understanding is that they would be talking with each other continually over the coming days," Jaishankar said.

Referring to the historic "Howdy, Modi" event in Houston last month, Jaishankar said "we couldn't have conceived" of such an event 10 years ago.

The "Howdy, Modi" event in a sense reflects a phenomenon which is going to be the future of the world, which is a flow of talent from one geography to the other, he said.

"You've really seen in the last 20 years a dramatic change in this relationship. And dramatic change between big countries is not that common," he said.

"When I say dramatic change, there isn't a sector today you wouldn't say that there has been a very, very high growth rate," he said the top Indian diplomat.

Fifteen years ago, the Indian military had virtually no American equipment in its inventory. And today India flies American aircraft, two American helicopters, have American artillery, and have an American ship, Jaishankar said.

"That's a huge change. It's not just equipment. It's whole culture and understanding which goes with all of that," he said.

"If you look at the politics of the relationship, including security and defense, we have moved to from, actually a very difficult history, sometimes actually a hostile one, to something which today the level of comfort between the Indian and American systems as it were is enormous," he said.

Jaishankar said the bilateral relationship was really on a roll, be it in sectors such as education, talent, economy, defence or tourism.

"The challenge for us is how do you actually keep up that pace, maybe even accelerate it, look at new horizon. Look at the future of the world, where we are going to be in that world, and how do we get the most out of the relationship, in all of this," Jaishankar said.

"There was a time I mentioned to someone where actually an Indian entering the Pentagon would be an oddity. Today, if they don't see one every hour, they kind of miss us," he said, amidst laughter from the audience.

Emphasising upon the emergence of a multipolar global scenario, Jaishankar said in this world, what are presumed to be intractable challenges will have to be addressed, not ducked, citing recent changes in Jammu and Kashmir as an example to this approach.

He said it was difficult to foresee a return to a bipolar world even amid the sharpening contradictions between China and the West, saying the landscape has now changed irreversibly.

"Other nations are independently on the move, including India. Half of the twenty largest economies of the world are non-western now. Diffusion of technology and demographic differentials will also contribute to the broader spread of influence.

"We see the forces at play that reflect the relative primacy of local equations when the global construct is less overbearing," he said.

As the world moved in the direction of greater pluralism, pragmatic result-oriented cooperation has begun looking attractive, Jaishankar said.

India today has emerged as a leader among such multilateral groups, because it occupies both the hedging and the emerging space at the same time, he said.