Showing posts with label Sanjeev Sanyal. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sanjeev Sanyal. Show all posts

Friday, February 21, 2020

We need better supervision and not excessive regulations: Sanjeev Sanyal


Principal Economic Advisor Sanjeev Sanyal on Thursday cautioned against excessively regulating and policing various sectors and called for fewer laws and rules with better supervision.

“We better supervision, and not more regulation. Our default approach in India, to solve any problem, is not to improve state capacity. Our default approach is to have more laws, more regulations. That is what we are arguing against,” Sanyal said during a media interaction while discussing a finance ministry discussion paper authored by him.

In the paper, titled ‘Risk vs Uncertainty: Supervision, Governance & Skin-in-the-Game’, Sanyal has argued that a conventional top-down approach of regulation is the go-to solution for governments to deal with problems, which is a risk-based approach. What gets overlooked is that systems need to be prepared for uncertainty, he says.

“It would be far better, therefore, to have a simpler regulatory framework supplemented by active and efficient supervision. The problem is that supervision demands active monitoring and accountability from the government department or regulatory body. This creates a perverse incentive to keep adding more top-down regulations regardless of their effectiveness,” Sanyal wrote.

Sanyal said there were many ways of being non-complaint. “Focus on having a simple system that works for most of the people, then supervise it properly. The more complex a system, the more rigid and opaque it becomes,” he said. Chief Economic Advisor Krishnamurthy Subramanian, who was also at the briefing, backed Sanyal’s arguments.

“When you have more regulation, it creates a false sense of complacency, and as a result supervision does not happen that much. Because you feel like you have taken care of all the problems through multiple rules. If you have lesser rules, you will supervise better,” Subramanian said.

Sanyal said recent episodes in the Indian economy, like the IL&FS saga, and the Punjab National Bank scam, would not have been avoided with more regulation. He said the system would have needed better supervision, not more regulation.

“The world of uncertainty is fundamentally different from the world of risk, and therefore, it requires policy tools that are also significantly different. However, the default policy response tends to be dominated by the risk-based approach,” Sanyal wrote in the paper.

“If you had a simple law and some degree of supervision, everything would be much better. If you have simpler rules, there are fewer things to comply with. In simple system everyone knows what it is,” he said.

Observing that a complex law leads to more discretion, Sanyal said, “We have tried to completely remove discretion by virtue of trying to create more and more regulation, which in fact, doesn’t help the case. In fact, as we make it more complex, more discretion, not less.”

Another point here is no amount of complex regulation is going to solve the problem of ex-post resolution because you live in an uncertain world, things will go wrong in ways you never imagined, he said.

Irrespective of the quality of regulations and supervision, the fuzziness of a world of Uncertainty further requires systemic trust, he said. “This implies revitalizing old-fashioned responses such as corporate governance, transparency, ethics and skin-in-the- game. Moreover, there should be a greater acceptance of the likelihood that things will go wrong. No amount of ex-ante planning and rule-making can compensate for efficient ex-post resolution and contract enforcement,” he said.

Wednesday, February 12, 2020

Economic growth set to bounce back as slump bottoms out: Sanjeev Sanyal

Indian economic growth is poised to bounce back after slipping to a more than six-year low of 4.5 per cent in the July-September quarter as the government has taken measures to prop up investments and consumer demand, a top government adviser said. "Corporate tax reductions, the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code and the banking sector reforms have helped and will help propel growth further," Sanjeev Sanyal(pictured) principal economic adviser at the finance ministry, said.

The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, introduced in May 2016, has helped banks to recover billions of dollars stuck in outstanding corporate loans and offer loans to new borrowers.

Sanyal said economic growth was set to accelerate to 6 per cent in the financial year beginning in April, compared with estimated growth of 5.0% in the current one.

But many private economists are less optimistic, saying the current downturn may continue for the next few quarters due to a dip in private investments and tepid consumer demand.

Nomura said Asia’s third-largest economy will see a sub-par recovery, and forecast 4.7 per cent GDP growth for the current fiscal year and 5.7 per cent for the next fiscal year.

Sanyal dismissed the conservative estimates and said his numbers took into account early signs of recovery in manufacturing and a pick-up in consumer demand.

He said the government expected that average consumer price inflation would fall to 4 per cent in the next financial year beginning April, after a recent spike driven largely by food prices.

There is enough space for the central bank to further cut interest rates, however, as inflation was likely to ease following a fall in vegetable prices, he said.

"While there was a slowdown, this slowdown has by and large now bottomed out, and if anything from here on, growth is going to go up," Sanyal said.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, who tabled her annual budget earlier this month, told parliament on Tuesday that the signs of "green shoots were visible" and the economy was no longer in trouble.

The Reserve Bank of India last week kept it policy rates steady but downwardly revised the country's growth forecast for the first half of the next fiscal year to 5.5-6.0% from an earlier projection of 5.9%-6.3%.

Sanyal said the budget has offered a clutch of tax incentives for sovereign wealth and insurance funds, which would leave more banking funds for private companies despite higher state borrowings.

Other than the coronavirus outbreak in China, there is no "major other disruption," to India, he said adding it was difficult to quantify the impact as the situation was still evolving.