Experts stand divided as govt hints at extending Covid-19 lockdown

In a week’s time, the 21-day lockdown which came into effect on March 24-25 midnight comes to a close. Meanwhile the number of Covid-19 cases in India continues to rise. As of Wednesday morning, official data showed that India has 5,194 cases with 149 deaths. The government now admits that India is between stage-II and stage-III of the pandemic, with limited community spreading.

It is in this context that the central government has to decide whether or not to extend the nationwide lockdown beyond next week. A number of states and public health experts have asked for the lockdown to continue till April 30 at least. Others are advocating that parts of the economy be opened up, and the Centre and states come up with a detailed plan on a phased lifting of the lockdown.

“What might be required is a more strategic approach. An extension of the lockdown might cause a major social and economic impact. You might have to look at a graduated lifting of lockdown, where you do it in parts and see if people are still able to take precautions and follow social distancing norms,” said Anant Bhan, a medical doctor and public health policy expert.

Bhan said that the aim of the lockdown was to provide a limited time period to the authorities in which public health measures could be ramped up. “If you are not able to do it in 21 days, there is no guarantee that (another) 14 days will make that much of a difference. You have to utilise that time effectively. The virus is not going away in 21 days,” Bhan said.

Former Chief Economic Advisor Kaushik Basu wrote in the Mint newspaper earlier this week that once the 21-day period is over, it is important to take steps to unwind in a measured way and have more targeted lockdowns. “Following South Korea, we need to locate regions and pockets which have to be kept under close watch and locked down, with others being opened up with rules of behaviour in place—masks, social distancing, quarantining those unwell—so that the rest of India can get back to producing goods and services, and help the locked-down areas. We have to start some of our domestic flights and trains, with new rules,” Basu wrote.

Meanwhile, in a meeting with the Opposition parties on Wednesday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is reported to have said that none of the state chief ministers he spoke to had advised against the extension of the lockdown.

After the meeting, Leader of Opposition in Rajya Sabha, Congress’ Ghulam Nabi Azad said around 80 per cent of the political leaders who attended the meeting with Modi advocated an extension.

The Prime Minister and the central government will take a final decision after his videoconference meeting with Chief Ministers of states on April 11.

Meanwhile, rumours have started spreading thick and fast in various parts of the country about the extension. On Wednesday, after news reports and tweets by journalists that either some or all parts of 15 districts in Uttar Pradesh will be sealed off completely, there was panic buying and all safety, health and social distancing norms were disregarded.

Bhan said sealing off certain areas while opening up rest of the country is not a sustainable approach. “Containment can happen for a brief period of time. You also need to have a smarter strategy. There are economic and social implications,” he said.

What is clear that unlike the announcement of the lockdown, which was done unilaterally by the centre without much discussion with the states, the decision on whether to extend it or not, and the contours of a detailed plan, will have to be done in conjunction with the states. Else there might be another social, economic and humanitarian jolt.

Covid-19: Air Deccan halts operations, staff put on sabbatical without pay

With revenues in the aviation sector having drastically reduced amid the 21-day lockdown imposed to curb the COVID-19 pandemic, Air Deccan announced on Sunday that it is ceasing its operations until further notice and all employees are being put on sabbatical without pay with immediate effect.

In an email to his employees, Air Deccan CEO Arun Kumar Singh said, "In view of the recent global and domestic issues and subsequent directive by the Indian regulator (to suspend all flights till April 14), Air Deccan has no choice but to cease its operations until further notice."

ALSO READ: HDFC Bank's advances rise 21% in March quarter; deposits go up 24%

"With heavy heart, I am also compelled to inform that all existing employees of Air Deccan (permanent, temporary and contractual) are being put on sabbatical without pay with immediate effect," he added in the email, which has been accessed by the PTI.

Crop harvest takes centre stage in plans for lifting coronavirus lockdown

The Centre is brainstorming with states before it goes ahead with its plan to undertake a staggered lifting of the 21-day lockdown from April 15. Some of the issues that are likely to be taken up are crop harvest, procurement of grains by government agencies, and restoring inter-state supply chains.

A day after Prime Minister Narendra Modi sought suggestions on staggered lifting of the lockdown, some states stressed the need to restore supply chains. They also said the Centre wants them to identify hotspots of the virus, which could help in enforcing a limited lockdown in urban areas.

Experts, however, believe this will be temporary. A longer lockdown to contain the spread of coronavirus disease (Covid-19) would be needed, with the number of cases and deaths from it spiking every passing day.

In his talks with chief ministers, Modi also spoke of a possible second wave of the virus in some countries.

According to sources in some states, they are working on a strategy for a renewed lockdown after a gap of some days to facilitate the procurement of grains.

The Centre also needs to ensure higher production of medical supplies, particularly personal protective equipment and ventilators to supply to states. Assam Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal, Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot and some others have specifically demanded resumption of supply chains, while Bihar CM Nitish Kumar has asked the Centre for urgent medical supplies.

However, at the current juncture, states as well as the Centre are concerned about the lockdown disrupting the harvest of crops.

On Friday, Union Home Secretary Ajay Kumar Bhalla shot off a letter to state chief secretaries to allow harvesting and sowing operations.

After the PM announced the lockdown on March 24, farm outfits approached the Centre asking it to relax restrictions on harvesting of standing crops.

The Centre issued an advisory on March 27, exempting harvest operations, but the message has not reached the ground.

In his letter, the home secretary said lockdown exemptions to farming operations, procurement of agricultural products, operation of mandis as well as movement of harvesting and sowing machinery should be communicated to all field agencies.

At a meeting with state governors and administrators, Vice-President M Venkaiah Naidu urged them to advise the state agencies to ensure the smooth movement of farm machinery so that farmers do not face any hardship.

According to a statement by the Rajya Sabha secretariat, Naidu also wanted them “to ensure 100 per cent procurement of the produce”. “That is the need of the hour,” the vice-president said.

Experts in India believe the time to assess the impact of the lockdown is the third week of April, since cases recorded now are of those infected before the lockdown started.

RK Misra, a non-resident scholar at Carnegie India, tweeted of a four-week lockdown lifting process. “During our discussion in various groups (with industry/political leaders, thinkers and policymakers), following is emerging as the four-week staggered lockdown lifting process for various industries and institutions. For IT, financial services and BPO companies – only 25 per cent in the first week, 50 per cent in the second week, 75 per cent in the third and 100 per cent in the fourth week attend office and be seated accordingly, ensuring social distancing. Remaining work from home in respective weeks,” Misra added.

“Industries and factories — food and essential goods — immediately open to full production in the first week if they are not running already,” he said.

The Confederation of All India Traders has also asked for easing of the lockdown, or making the process of getting passes simpler, to ensure smoother supply chains. It said traders have stocks of 15-20 days, but may need to replenish if the lockdown is extended or reinforced later.

Coronavirus impact: Nomura lowers 2020 GDP growth forecast to -0.5%

With nearly 75 per cent of the Indian economy in lockdown, Nomura has lowered 2020 GDP growth forecast to -0.5 per cent YoY from 4.5 per cent. “We expect growth to slide from 4.7 per cent YoY in Q4CY19 to 3.1 per cent in Q1CY20 and fall to -6.1 per cent in Q2CY20,” said Sonal Varma, MD and chief India economist at Nomura.

Ind-Ra cuts FY21 growth forecast to 3.6%

India Ratings (Ind-Ra) on Monday cut its FY21 growth forecast to 3.6 per cent amid Covid-related worries. It has assumed that a full or partial lockdown will continue till end of April and economic activities will be restored only after May. It expects India to clock a 2.3 per cent growth for Q1FY21, down from 4.7 per cent forecast in Q4FY20.

Fitch cuts GDP growth forecast to 4.6%

Fitch Solutions on Monday slashed its estimate for India's GDP growth in 2020-21 to 4.6 per cent due to weaker private consumption and contraction in investment amid coronavirus outbreak.

The growth estimate for FY compares with a 4.9 per cent forecast in the current 2019-20 that ends on Tuesday.