India's solar power installations increase by 36% yoy at 2,170 Mw in Q3

Installations in the Indian solar market rose by 36 per cent year-on-year during third quarter of calendar year 2019, reaching 2,170 Mw from 1,592 Mw a year ago. Compared to the second quarter of 2019, installations are up by 44 per cent. However, solar installations in the first nine months of 2019 reached 5.4 gigawatts (Gw), down 19 per cent from 6.7 Gw of capacity added in the first nine months of 2018, according to Mercom India Research.

In Q3 of 2019, large-scale installations totaled 1,925 Mw compared to 1,218 Mw in Q2 2019 and 1,157 Mw in Q3 of 2018. The large-scale solar project development pipeline for the country has increased to 22.6 Gw. About 37 Gw of solar has been tendered and was pending auction at the end of the quarter.

Rooftop solar installations declined by 16 per cent quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) in Q3 of 2019, totaling 245 Mw compared to 292 Mw installed in Q2 2019. Rooftop solar installations fell by 44 per cent YoY compared to 435 Mw in Q3 of 2018.

“Solar installations in Q3 of 2019 beat the downward trend seen over the past five quarters; however, we are revising our forecast down for 2019 as over 1 Gw of projects have been delayed. The rooftop market continues to be weak amid a lack of financing and consistent regulatory issues,” said Raj Prabhu, CEO and co-founder of Mercom Capital Group.

The revision in the solar forecast was attributed to the slowdown in rooftop solar installations was due to partial commissioning of large-scale solar projects, and over a gigawatt of projects that were scheduled to be commissioned in the third and fourth quarters getting pushed to 2020 due to a number of reasons, including: legal issues, land acquisition problems, execution delays, tariff approvals, AP state Issues – policy instability, and access to financing.

Total power capacity addition during nine months of 2019 was 13 Gw from all power generation sources. Of this, renewable energy sources accounted for nearly 56 per cent of installations, with solar representing 41.4 per cent of new capacity and wind with 13.6 per cent. Coal accounted for almost 44.1 per cent of new capacity in 9M of 2019.

India’s cumulative solar installations stood at 33.8 Gw by the end of third quarter of 2019. However, rooftop installations still made up only 12 per cent of total solar installations. Because of the liquidity crunch and worsening economic conditions, commercial & industrial (C&I) companies are struggling to finance rooftop projects. The country has crossed 4 Gw of cumulative rooftop solar installations and achieved only 10 per cent of the 2022 target of 40 Gw.

Mercom India Research has revised its solar forecast down to about 7.3 Gw for capacity additions in CY 2019 from the previous estimate of 8 Gw. Mercom is estimating about 10 Gw of solar installations in CY 2020, assuming stable market conditions.

Tamil Nadu was the top state for large-scale solar installations in Q3 2019, followed by Rajasthan and Karnataka. Large-scale solar installations were mostly concentrated in five states, which made up 96 per cent of installed capacity in the quarter.

“The pipeline of projects due to be commissioned in 2020 looks a lot stronger and we should see the solar market resume year-over-year growth again. But a lot will depend on the economy getting back on track, which will affect lending and power demand,” added Prabhu.

Solar installation stood at 8.3 GW in 2018, Adani top project developer

India’s solar installations stood at 8.3 GW in 2018. The installations include large-scale and rooftop solar capacity. The country’s cumulative solar capacity is around 28 GW as of 2018.

Much has changed in the Indian solar industry over the last year. There was some re-shuffling when it came to suppliers after the imposition of the safeguard duty while others have consolidated their positions, says Industry representative, said Raj Prabhu, CEO of Mercom Capital Group. 

Mercom Communications India's report finds that the top 10 large-scale developers accounted for 60 per cent of the market share in 2018.

In terms of cumulative installations, Adani maintained its position as the top project developer, while ACME Solar was the developer with the most large-scale solar installations in 2018. Adani was the second largest developer in 2018.

Around 80 large-scale project developers with a pipeline of 5 MW or more in India. ACME Solar had the largest project pipeline at the end of 2018 closely followed by SB Energy (SoftBank) and Azure Power.

In 2018, the top 10 rooftop solar installers accounted for just 30 per cent of the installed capacity in India, reflecting the fragmented nature of the sector, said Mercom.

Rooftop installations grew 66 per cent year-over-year (YoY) with cumulative installations totaling nearly 3.3 GW at the end of 2018. Rooftop solar installations for 2018 amounted to 1.7 GW.

Among rooftop installers, Tata Power led cumulative installations while CleanMax Solar was the top rooftop installer in 2018.

ABB continues to lead solar inverter supply in the Indian market cumulatively and in 2018.

Central inverters accounted for approximately 70% of total shipments, while string inverters accounted for 30% in 2018. Huawei was the top string inverter in India in 2018.

In 2018, the top five module suppliers accounted for over 30% of the market. ZnShine was the top supplier of solar modules in 2018. The imposition of the safeguard duty has helped domestic module manufacturers capture a larger share of the market compared to 2017.

There are over 60 suppliers of solar mounting structures active in the Indian market, with Pennar Industries leading the pack.

There are over 30 suppliers of solar trackers active in the Indian market. As of 2018, approximately 4 GW of trackers has been supplied in the market. Arctech Solar was the top supplier in 2018.